Hi Sascha,
let me have a try...
First, let's summarize what we have so far, and as far as played games were shared (we should not include rough assumption; these would only be useful for a final check).
Code:
125: 10 games
0-2 Mephisto 1 1218 (Tibono 16/2 9:49)
1,5-0,5 Boris 986 (Tibono 16/2 9:49)
1-1 Super System III 1112 (Tibono 16/2 9:49)
1,5-0,5 CC Pocket Chess 999 (Tibono 16/2 9:49)
1-1 Mini Sensory 999 (Tibono 16/2 9:49)
1-1 Delta-1 683 (Tibono 16/2 9:49)
41,7 / 1000 = 941
500: 3 games
2-1 Mephisto 1 1218 (Eberhard 15/2 17:11 + 19:35)
66,7% / 1218 = 1339
1000: 10 games
0-2 sensory 9 1591 (Wolfgang2 21/2 19:27)
4-0 Mephisto III 1507 (Wolfgang2 29/2 21:52)
1-1 sensory 12 1743 (Wolfgang2 16/2 0:39)
0-2 sensory 12 1743 (Wolfgang2 17/2 15:25)
50% / 1618 = 1618
4000: 8 games
4-0 sensory 12 1743 (Wolfgang2 17/2 15:25)
2,5-1,5 /Mephisto MM II (Wolfgang2 17/2 20:14)
81,25% / 1789 = 2044
16000: 8 games
3-1 /Mephisto 68000XL 2004 (Wolfgang2 18/2 23:01)
3-1 /Centurion 2021 (Wolfgang2 19/2 20:16)
75% / 2012 = 2203
Data source is from the posts within this thread, I reminded the original posts providing them.
Now let's draw a first graph:
Obviously, points are aligned on a logarithm curve - quite normal, elo points result from the transformation of an exponential function (probability to win) into a linear one - which is what a log function does.
So let's update the graph to a logarithm view for x-axis (nodes/move):
Great, points are now quite aligned - I can draw a line hitting both points 1339 elo@500 nodes, and 2200 elo@10000 nodes.
Let's find the linear formula for this line (I used a website for that, no need to go back to school
), it is:
y=(-5356+2200*log(500))/(-4+log(500))+(-861*x)/(-4+log(500))
(where 4=log(10000), as 10000 is 10^4)
Now we just need to substitute log(nodes/move) into x shoes, and you get an Excel formula like:
=(-5356+2200*LOG(500))/(-4+LOG(500))+(-861*LOG(B2))/(-4+LOG(500))
where B2 is the cell containing the number of nodes. Copy/paste for more cells, and the result is:
Code:
Nodes 125 250 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000
Calc_Elo 941 1140 1339 1538 1737 1937 2136 2335
Please note a perfect hit as well with the first point (941 elo@125 nodes/m) - without any cheating
Cheers,
Eric